Jim's remark on 2022 Mathematical Contest in Modeling of Beihang University | Jim Zhang's blog
Jim's remark on 2022 Mathematical Contest in Modeling of Beihang University2022-01-20

Problems

Problem A

Problem B

Extreme rainfall on the east coast of Australia beginning in March 2021 led to severe flooding. (Wikipedia: 2021 Eastern Australia floods). This rare weather event has been described as once in 30, 50 or even 100 years. What does that so-called "once in years" mean?

First, let’s clear up a common misconception about what a once-in-a-century event means. That doesn’t mean it happens every 100 years, or that it won’t happen again in the next 100 years. For meteorologists, a once-in-a-century event is an event that occurs more than once every 100 years on average. This means that in 1,000 years, you would expect a once-in-a-century event to occur 10 times or more. But a few of those times might happen in a few years, and then not for a long time. Another way to think about the meaning of a once-in-a-century event is that there is at least a 1% chance of an event of that size occurring in any given year.

To the surprise of many, the once-in-a-century events seem to be happening much more frequently than they expected. While 1% sounds rare, it’s actually more common than you might think. For a given location, a 100-year event is expected to occur on average once every 100 years. In some places, however, once-in-a-century events occur far more often than once a century!

Nearly half a million people have died in the past 20 years from diseases linked to climate disasters, most of them in the world’s poorest countries, according to new findings by nonprofit organization. Between 2000 and 2019, there were about 11,000 extreme weather events worldwide. These events have caused about 475,000 deaths and $2.5 trillion in economic damage in more than 160 countries.

Title Requirements:

  1. Please establish a mathematical model to assess whether the weather events in the data are once every 30 years, once every 50 years or once every 100 years.

  2. To study whether the occurrence of some weather events has a certain space-time law and make a certain forecast.

  3. Have extreme weather events become more frequent in recent years? Please give a scientific explanation.

  4. Please submit a 1-2 page extreme weather risk assessment and estimate the possible damage.